Trust Your Instincts

This mild winter has been dry and windy, but it has allowed me to finish getting ready for winter.

Last week, I took some time to listen to speakers at a couple of fall conferences.

As always, I came away with a few golden nuggets.

The bankers highlighted our economic uncertainty.

Inflation is rampant.

Employees are demanding higher wages and getting them.

Once wages rise, prices rarely drop.

Even economists who were trying with all their might to declare this inflation as temporary now admit we are facing prices that keep rising.

As a rancher, how do I deal with inflation?

I am budgeting for fuel to cost $4.25, only because I saw consumer behavior change when gas hit $4.00 in 2011 and I assume politicians and profiteers will push the envelope further this year.

I added 12 to 15 percent to my supply and repair budgets.

And I kept my old milk cow, Maija.

Maija single-handedly reduces my food costs, not only with her milk, but because I make fewer trips to the grocery store. Sometimes, when I stop at the grocery for a gallon of milk, I spend $50 on all of the other things that look tasty.

The bankers predict interest rates will rise, they just don’t know when.

One survey predicted interest rates at 2 or 3 percent higher by 2025. Others say we will see that by 2023.

I need to evaluate whether I should refinance my land loan to lock in a non-variable rate. I doubt I am ahead of the bankers, though. They see higher interest rates coming soon so are not likely to carry my debt for pennies.

Weather forecasters predict this mild winter will turn cold and snowy, they just don’t know when.

La Nina is poised to kick in after Christmas with a 90 percent chance of a colder and wetter January through March.

My fingers are crossed. I just hope my tractor will navigate 130 percent more snow in 130 percent colder weather.

I’ll double feed in the cold and save my straw for newborn calves in March.

While the economy and weather are uncertain and scary, four nuggets I heard from speakers were inspirational.

We all need some inspiration once in a while. At least I do.

They focus my mind and help me decide how to navigate through the uncertainty.

The first reminded me to take action instead of floundering.

Powerlessness fragments.

Power unites.

Power comes from action.

I watch some of my friends flail their arms as they wait for a return to the way things were. They feel powerless while they wait.

I think a better strategy is to accept reality and deal with it.

Take action.

Adapt.

Adapting can be uncomfortable, even painful, especially when we are adapting because life suddenly smacks us with events outside our control – divorce, death, injury or changes to our business.

One speaker said “Don’t ignore the pain. Give it purpose. Use it.”

That way, at least the pain of change is not wasted.

Another speaker noted that “Transformation happens at the intersection of understanding the problem and hope.”

Good things will come from change if I learn to understand the causes and consequences, knowing I can adapt.

I don’t have to know exactly how to adapt.

I don’t have to have all of the answers before I try because you never know how to do something until you do it.

My favorite inspiration from the past week is: Trust your intuition, it saves time.

It’s good to gather statistics, data and forecasts, but I make the best decisions when I listen to my gut.

During chaos and uncertainty, my foremost job is to remember to listen and trust my instincts.

During this season of especially noisy chaos, I hope you will listen and trust yourself, too.