Black Swan Events

I had never heard of a Black Swan event until about 10 years ago.

At a conference, one speaker described a Black Swan event as something that comes from nowhere and could not have been predicted.

We can hedge our risk against drought, markets and election outcomes.

Black Swans hit us in the back of the head from right field.

We all have had plenty of hits to the back of the head in the past two years -- lockdowns, empty grocery store shelves, used car values higher than the original price and unprecedented divisiveness.

Inflation at 7 percent – the highest rate since 1981 -- means all of us are scrambling.

And scared.

In 1981, annual inflation was 10.3 percent. Interest rates were 18.3 percent. Farmers and ranchers who had operating loans could not pay the interest, much less the principle.

I remember watching rancher after rancher go broke. Advertisements for equipment auctions filled the newspapers. Equipment sold for pennies on the dollar because of the flood of supply.

Fuel prices were crazy then, too, just as they were in 2008 and are again now.

This year, when I budgeted my fuel expenses at $4 per gallon, I thought I had padded my budget enough. Gas prices jumped 20 cents yesterday to $3.79 and diesel is selling for more than $4 a gallon.

Studies show that $7 gas at the pump will crash our economy and we haven’t reached peak summer demand yet.

But we have a far more threatening Black Swan event hitting us in the back of our collective head.

Worse than threatening our economic well-being, our freedom and global security are collapsing.

Russia’s president Putin is trying to capture an independent sovereign nation.

Without freedom and security, Black Swan blows to the back of our heads will come even faster and more furious.

Russia’s citizens protest, Europeans protest and Ukrainian citizens are more than miffed.

Putin threatens to push the nuclear button if America objects.

We must object.

I say this as a mother with a son in the military.

My son has friends who work in nuclear missile silos.

They are close to the front lines, although not as close as the woman with the sunflower seeds.

She offered her sunflower seeds to the Russian soldier.

She told him to carry the seeds in his pocket so that when he died on Ukrainian soil the sunflowers would grow and at least something good would come from his life.

Bully Putin uses the nuclear button as a threat of intimidation just as schoolyard bullies use their fists and mouthy threats.

Once a threat works for a bully, he will use it again.

And again.

Meanwhile, the bully’s victim tries to play by society’s rules regarding fairness and respect.

Bully Putin already broke those rules.

Our politicians offer half-hearted opposition to the bully, worried that standing up strong might make our lives uncomfortable and them unelectable.

Our nation has tried to win wars with half-hearted opposition before.

It has not worked.

Go all in or go home.

A part of me can’t believe I am advocating for direct resistance. In fact, I might change my mind tomorrow.

Personally, I have a lot to lose.

But I risk losing as much and more by cowering in a corner, hoping a mad bully will come to his senses.

So will you.

I press for all-out resistance to a mad man who threatens total annihilation knowing that passive, partial resistance won’t work.

Our society will break down either way so we might as well give it everything we have to save it.

We can’t predict Black Swan events, but we know how to respond to bullies.